Analysts Flag Insurance Coverage, Tariffs and Surgical Robots as Medtech Issues for 2026

Medical device makers enter 2026 on solid footing but face open questions about insurance coverage, possible industry-specific tariffs and competition in surgical robotics, Wall Street analysts told MedTech Dive in an outlook published Thursday.

"I feel like the fundamentals have been really intact for our sector," said RBC Capital Markets analyst Shagun Singh. "I think the sector has done relatively well." BTIG analyst Ryan Zimmerman said procedures were strong and hospital spending was healthy in 2025, but that some lingering uncertainty would spill into 2026, creating "fears of the unknown."

Coverage and capital spending

Enhanced subsidies for Affordable Care Act plans expired at the end of 2025. The expiration will raise costs for about 22 million ACA enrollees, and about 4 million people are expected to become uninsured, according to a Healthcare Dive report cited by MedTech Dive.

Analysts said the effect on device makers is hard to quantify. "If you take away healthcare from people, there's generally lower utilization of healthcare," Zimmerman said. UBS analyst Danielle Antalffy said the impact would vary by company and procedure, and that spending on surgical robots is likely to remain a hospital priority while makers of medical equipment such as Stryker and Baxter could feel some pressure. William Blair analyst Brandon Vazquez said hospitals might delay capital purchases early in the year until they see whether the subsidy loss affects their business.

Tariffs and deals

The Commerce Department began a Section 232 national security investigation on September 2, 2025, into imports of personal protective equipment, medical consumables and medical equipment including devices, a probe that could lead to tariffs aimed specifically at the industry. Needham analyst Mike Matson said most 2025 tariffs took effect in the second half, so they will apply for the full year in 2026.

Matson said device makers cannot respond to tariffs the way drugmakers did, by cutting prices, because device costs are built into procedure payments. "They buy a procedure, and the device is part of that cost," he said of the government.

Analysts expect more mergers after a busy second half of 2025. Matson said he expects more deals this year. "I'm not sure it's gonna be a boom, but I think it'll definitely be more than [2025]." Singh said medtech companies have healthy balance sheets and that M&A is, in most cases, their top use of cash.

Robots

Medtronic received FDA clearance for its Hugo surgical robot in December with a urology indication, and Johnson & Johnson said this week it had submitted its Ottava robot to the FDA, MedTech Dive reported. Analysts said they did not see Hugo as a near-term threat to market leader Intuitive Surgical. "As far as actually getting share from Intuitive, I think it's a stretch to think that Hugo is going to get much traction in the U.S.," Antalffy said.

Vazquez said hospitals may still welcome a second supplier. "I always tell people that there's one thing that doctors hate, and it's monopolies," he said.